Corn Market  Review  for 08-16-10

September Corn ended down 4 1/2 at 407 1/4, 10 1/4 off the high and 1 1/2 up from the low. December Corn settled down 4 1/2 at 422 3/4. This was 1 3/4 up from the low and 10 1/4 off the high.

December corn pushed above last week’s highs early in the day session before selling off to lower on the day from mid morning through early afternoon. This came despite a sagging dollar with traders crediting a sharp drop in wheat with generating spillover selling into corn. Corn gained sharply against wheat on the day in active trade by spreaders. A major private crop tour got underway across the Midwest today amid expectations of strong yields in corn. However, some traders are pointing to minor yield losses in soybeans versus the 44 bushels per acre indicated by the USDA on its August Crop Production report last Thursday. The USDA will issue its latest crop ratings this afternoon. Some are looking for a small reduction from last week’s good-to-excellent rating of 71% for corn. Near normal to above normal temperatures are forecast in major growing areas through the remainder of the week with cooler temperatures seen in the NW Corn Belt, especially early in the week. Favorable drier weather is forecast in the western Corn Belt. Many fields there are waterlogged, and the dry spell will be very welcome. This week’s export inspections for corn stood at 31.128 million bushels, down substantially from last week’s 44.661 million. Inspections need to average 73.702 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for the 2009/10 crop marketing year which ends at the end of August.

September Rice settled 0.15 lower at 10.85, 0.33 off the high and equal to the low.

 8-16-10 – Wheat Market Recap Report

September Wheat ended down 38 3/4 at 663 3/4, 45 1/4 off the high and 8 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 38 at 696 1/4. This was 8 3/4 up from the low and 44 1/2 off the high.

December wheat posted marginal gains overnight before selling off into the start of the day session. This was followed by a sharp sell off from mid morning through early afternoon. Traders said that world markets are far less panicked about the Russian crop losses than was the case last week and the week before. In addition, more moderate temperatures and scattered rains in European Russia have slightly improved prospects for winter wheat planting in some areas, although sources indicate that much more rain is needed. Traders indicate that there is still a high level of uncertainty over the ultimate size of the Russian grain crop as well as how long Russia grain export ban will be in effect. One analyst noted that the extent of the ban may depend on whether or not Russia sees goods rains ahead of the planting season for winter wheat. Wheat lost sharply to corn on the day in active trade by spreaders. This week’s export inspections for wheat were 20.804 million bushels, up from 14.748 million last week. Inspections need to average 24.231 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10.

December Oats finished down 1 at 285 1/2. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 10 1/4 off the high.

8-16-10 – Soybean Complex Market Recap Report

September Soybeansfinished down 9 1/2 at 1034, 16 1/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 12 1/2 at 1031 1/2. This was 3 1/4 up from the low and 17 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 1.07 at 42.07, 1.32 off the high and 0.02 up from the low.

December Soymeal settled down 1.3 at 295.4. This was 1.4 up from the low and 5.2 off the high.

November soybeans moved higher during the first half of the day session, taking out the overnight highs in the process. However, the market sold off to lower on the day from mid session into early afternoon despite continued weakness in the dollar. Traders said that selling in wheat spilled over into the soybean complex, and they also credited the much more favorable weather outlook this week with adding to the pressure. Soy oil traded lower throughout the day session, finishing sharply lower on the late sell off. Sources in Iowa report that Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) is widespread in the state and this is being blamed on excessive moisture. SDS can cause minimal to severe yield losses. Forecasts call for a break in the rain in the western soybean belt this week, including Iowa, and that is considered very welcome. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are forecast for the parched Delta region, but that area could use more than the expected amounts. The USDA announced another sale to China this morning, this one for 220,000 tonnes for delivery during the 2010/2011 marketing year. The National Oilseed Processors’ Association (NOPA) reported this morning that its members crushed 124.181 million bushels in July, down from 126.241 in June, but up from 120,920 million in July, 2009. Traders were expecting a slightly higher number. NOPA soy oil stocks were pegged at 3.026 billion pounds at the end of July, virtually unchanged from 3.036 billion pounds in June. Meal exports for June were 407,279 tons, down from 501,441 in June. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 13.481 million bushels, up from 7.263 million last week. Inspections need to average 15.401 million each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10.

After reading ï»¿today’s recap,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders  momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

The daily commentaries provide a rundown of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule.  Market commentaries for wheat, soybeans, corn, silver and gold are provided by CME Group.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

This blog is published by Andy Waldock.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or his customers in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a discussion among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage.  Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk.  If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting  on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.